jon: but, judy, the republicans caved on things like the fiscal cliff and the debt ceiling. it seemed like he was a on a roll in the early weeks. >> right, jon, but that may establish the point which is, that if you start out with a lower level of popularity than presidents traditionally started out, their second term, you have further to fall, to rise in the polls if you're numbers go up but you have less to fall if, below to get that below that 50% mark. if you start out with a highly partisan, politicized electorate they will really come down on you like a ton of bricks if you do anything they don't like, which is a point that nate silver made in a recent analysis on the polling drop. i think coming right after this, the president's, what seems to be a very successful trip to the middle east just shows you that the american people are focused on the economy and they're focused on economic uncertainty. they're not focused on foreign policy as much as some of us would like, they really care about whether or not he's going to deliver any economic prosperity in the second ter